HAUNTED

Part of developing a complete poker game is putting your opponent on a hand based on the board texture and betting patterns.  No matter how good you get, there is always a hand where you honestly say of all the hands imaginable, it wasn't that.  Here's a hand from last week:

It's tournament play, the blinds are $600 - $1200 with a $200 ante.  We are 9 handed, the pot stands at $3600.  The table folds to me in the small-blind.  I have Qs-Jh.  The player in the Big Blind has been pretty aggressive, so I'm fairly sure that I can't just call, it's either raise or fold.  I choose to raise, mainly because I have invested in a tight image for quite a while.  I make it $3500.

The big-blind calls but does not re-raise.  The pot is now $10,600.  The flop comes Ac-Js-Jc - YAHTZEE!  Holding 3 jacks-A-Q high, I check, hoping of course that my opponent made the call with an ace and a face card and will bet into me.  He checks also.

The turn card is the 7 of Clubs.  I have three jacks, the board has three clubs.  Fairly sure my opponent would have bet four clubs on the flop, I bet out $6000.  He calls, but does not raise.  Now I put him on an Ace for top pair with a small club; he might have a hand like K-10 or Q-10, a straight draw with one club.  I know he doesn't have three jacks... I have three jacks.

The river is the best cooler I've seen in a long time.  It is the Queen of Clubs.  Not only does it give me a full house, it improves almost every hand I could imagine him holding.  I make Jacks full of Queens, which is unbeatable unless my opponent has two aces or two queens, either hand he would have re-raised before the flop.  If he has K-10 of clubs I'm losing to a royal flush, and we all know that's going to happen every 650,000 hands or so.  More likely the best this card has done for him is to complete a flush.

This player has shown no finesse so far, I can be pretty sure he's not beating a full house.  The only hand I can reasonably fear is Ace-Jack, where he flops a full house and lets me bet it for him.  The prospect of Jacks-full vs. Jacks-full is pretty slim, so I bet $8000 into this $22,600 pot.  This leaves me about $9000 behind.  My opponent declares all-in.  He has my chip stack covered, it's me who will be all-in.  I call immediately, certain that my read is correct... he made a club flush on the river and he's sure it wins.

I show down my full-house and take the pot.  Frustrated, he shows his hand.  King of Clubs for the best flush possible, with the other Jack.  THE OTHER JACK.  We each flop 3 Jacks, King high against Queen high, and when a club hits the turn this guy is practically freerolling.  He's holding Three Jacks-A-K, with a re-draw to the A-K flush.  I raised pre-flop, the way I've been playing I can't have a single Jack in my hand, not even Ace-Jack, so the last thing he could expect is a ratty Q-J-off-suit.  I might have played the same way with QQ, making Queens full on at the end; I might have played like that with AA, making Aces-full at the start, so he might have saved his last raise on the river, but seriously.  The hand was just haunted.  I think I'm slowly squeezing him into a trap, the whole time I have exactly 3 Queens to win, and exactly 3 Aces to tie.

Now, here's a deeper analysis of reading theory.  I'm fond of saying that poker players are always like they are.  By that I mean that while people play the way they play, they commonly fall into the trap of assuming their opponent plays like they do also.  Reading your opponent is more about how they would play their hand, less how you would play it if you were them.  This is critical information in this hand.  My opponent's first mistake might well have been defending his blind with K-J-off-suit.  I had invested hours in a tight image.  I raised from the weakest position at the table with a careful, pot-sized raise.  Very uncommon for me.

So before the flop you have to put me on Ace-King or Ace-Queen at the least.  If you're holding two face-cards, you have to allow for the possibility that I have one of your cards covered, ace-high.  Now you're paying a raise to play heads-up with the real possibility of having one live card... three outs.  If I don't have A-Face, I have a raising pair, reasonably 8's or bigger.  Either way you're playing a pot with no odds, against a tight player, with a maximum of 6 wins in the deck.  As Chick Hearn used to say, "...not Phi-Beta-Kappa".

I firmly believe that my opponent in this hand discounted all the information I had previously provided and assumed that I was doing just what he would do, steal the blinds in an unopened pot.  In which case K-J was a good play.  The fact that he was right, and had me crushed, did not make it the right play, it just provided the Poker Gods an opportunity to vivisect him.

One more quick hand on point.  It's a different tournament game, this hand begins in the middle blind rounds.  I'm in the big-blind and the table has been very aggressive.  The player on the button has a substantial stack, plays a wide range, and moves a lot of chips around.  Very high tolerance for chip swings.  There is one player who just calls from the middle, and the button calls also.  I have 5-7 off-suit in the big-blind.  As always, I've invested in a very tight image.

I flop a straight to the 9.  6-8-9, three suits.  First guy checks, next guy also, to the player on the button who bets about half the pot. The pot is now almost half my stack.  I have the best hand possible, and the bettor is stacked-up and not at all bashful.  After considering my stack and the prospect that my hand isn't getting any better but another hand might, I go all-in.  It's 8,000 to call, a huge over-bet to his lead but not so much to the pot.  It gives him bad odds to call a draw, somewhere around 8k to win 13.

My opponent does not fold.  He thinks for a long time, then separates the calling chips and considers his remaining stack.  It might be posturing before folding a completely empty bluff... but it goes on for a long time.  I realize he might be considering a crazy call, something like an inside straight draw with 3 cards suited, so I decide to help.

"You're beat.  If you're thinking, you're beat.  Throw your hand away, I'll show you."

When he finally calls, he actually says: " No, I want to see it".

When the cards open up, he shows Q-9.  Top pair with a Queen kicker.  He can beat almost nothing.  It's one thing not believing that I would in fact show, it's another thing altogether to call with Q-9.  Every player in the room knew that I was not bluffing, the worst I had was two pair.

His final decision had to be more about how he would play the hand and nothing to do with me. What would he do with a 7 or J-10 for an open-ended straight draw, or maybe a pocket-pair of fours or fives?  He would try to get me to fold top pair... so I must be playing the same way.  Even if I had J-10 I'm a slight statistical favorite to his pair of nines.  What if I also have a nine?  If I'm willing to raise, don't I always have an Ace to go with it?  Even if I'm bluffing with nothing he's not getting the right price to call.  Disregarding all of this information, his defaults to the kind of game he knows best, his own.

People are always exactly like they are.